Sons of the Tundra: Dynasty Rankings: October 2009

Welcome to the "Original" Dynasty Rankings Fantasy Football Blog

This blog was born out of a Dynasty Rankings thread originally begun in October, 2006 at the Footballguys.com message boards. The rankings in that thread and the ensuing wall-to-wall discussion of player values and dynasty league strategy took on a life of its own at over 275 pages and 700,000 page views. The result is what you see in the sidebar under "Updated Positional Rankings": a comprehensive ranking of dynasty league fantasy football players by position on a tiered, weighted scale. In the tradition of the original footballguys.com Dynasty Rankings thread, intelligent debate is welcome and encouraged.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Dynasty Rising/Falling -- Week 8

Rising

QUARTERBACKS
Matt Schaub
Alex Smith
Tony Romo
Carson Palmer
Matthew Stafford?
Matt Moore

RUNNING BACKS
Beanie Wells
Cedric Benson
Shonn Greene
Jamaal Charles
Steven Jackson
Thomas Jones
Ricky Williams
Rashard Mendenhall
Ahman Green
Jason Snelling
Mike Bell

WIDE RECEIVERS
Sidney Rice
Miles Austin
Devin Hester
Michael Crabtree
Chad Ochocinco
DeSean Jackson
Vincent Jackson
Wes Welker
Mike Wallace
Malcom Floyd
Lee Evans
Hakeem Nicks
Austin Collie
Sammie Stroughter
Brian Hartline
Devin Thomas

TIGHT ENDS
Vernon Davis
Owen Daniels
Fred Davis
Gary Barnidge

Falling

QUARTERBACKS
Shaun Hill
Jake Delhomme
Josh Johnson
Matt Cassel
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Derek Anderson
JaMarcus Russell
Trent Edwards

RUNNING BACKS
Leon Washington
Larry Johnson
Matt Forte
Michael Turner
Tim Hightower
Michael Bush
Pierre Thomas
LeSean McCoy
Jerious Norwood
Brandon Jackson

WIDE RECEIVERS
Ted Ginn
Roy Williams
Bernard Berrian
Greg Jennings
Kevin Walter
Pierre Garcon
Muhsin Muhammad / Dwayne Jarrett
Mario Manningham

TIGHT ENDS
Kellen Winslow
Chris Cooley
Kevin Boss

Read more!

Monday, October 26, 2009

Early Waiver Wire Look | Week 8

*Note: The "Early Waiver Wire Look" is prep work for my Tuesday Rotoworld article that focuses on re-draft leagues. For the full article, check out Rotoworld.com or NBCSports.com on Tuesday afternoons.

BYE WEEK: NE, PIT, CIN, KC, WAS, TB

QUARTERBACKS
Alex Smith
Daunte Culpepper/Matthew Stafford
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Moore
A.J. Feeley
Josh Freeman

RUNNING BACKS
Beanie Wells - 54% after 54% last week
Shonn Greene - 15%
Jamaal Charles - 23%
Justin Fargas - 36%
Jason Snelling - 2%
Ahman Green - 2%
Derrick Ward - 51%
Kevin Faulk - 26%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Justin Forsett - 6%
Bernard Scott

WIDE RECEIVERS
Lee Evans - 75%
Anthony Gonzalez - 74%
Eddie Royal - 66%
Malcom Floyd
Mike Wallace - 38%
Nate Washington - 52%
Kenny Britt - 27%
Sam Aiken
Brandon Tate
Danny Amendola
Bobby Wade
Brian Hartline
Greg Camarillo
David Clowney

TIGHT ENDS
Dustin Keller - 62%, vs. MIA
Zach Miller? - 57%, @SD
Donald Lee?
Gary Barnidge

DEFENSES
Cardinals - 51%, vs. CAR
Cowboys - 56%, vs. SEA
Chargers - 77%, vs. OAK
Lions - vs. Rams

DROP

QB - Shaun Hill, Jake Delhomme, Matt Cassel, Chad Henne, Josh Johnson, Marc Bulger, JaMarcus Russell, Trent Edwards

RB - Leon Washington, Fred Jackson, Sammy Morris, Tim Hightower (non-PPR), Willie Parker

WR - Roy Williams?, Ted Ginn, Kevin Walter, Pierre Garcon, Davone Bess, Mohamed Massaquoi, Chris Chambers, Mark Bradley

TE - Jermichael Finley?, Anthony Fasano

Read more!

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Wide Receiver Rankings | Week 7: October 21, 2009

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIER ONE

1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 100

2. Calvin Johnson, DET | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 99

3. Andre Johnson, HOU | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 99

TIER TWO

4. Randy Moss, NE | Age: 32.6 | Value Score: 94

5. Reggie Wayne, IND | Age: 30.8 | Value Score: 94

6. Roddy White, ATL | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 93

7. Vincent Jackson, SD | Age: 26.7 | Value Score: 92

8. Greg Jennings, GB | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 91

9. Marques Colston, NO | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 91

TIER THREE

10. Steve Smith, CAR | Age: 30.3 | Value Score: 84

11. Chad Ocho Cinco, CIN | Age: 31.6 | Value Score: 82

12. Dwayne Bowe, KC | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 82

13. DeSean Jackson, PHI | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 82

14. Santonio Holmes, PIT | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 81

15. Braylon Edwards, NYJ | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 80

16. Anquan Boldin, ARI | Age: 28.9 | Value Score: 80

17. Wes Welker, NE | Age: 28.3 | Value Score: 78

18. Percy Harvin, MIN | Age: 21.3 | Value Score: 78

19. Brandon Marshall, DEN | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 77

20. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX | Age: 24.8 | Value Score: 75

TIER FOUR

21. Michael Crabtree, SF | Age: 22.0 | Value Score: 68

22. Steve Smith, NYG | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 66

23. Eddie Royal, DEN | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 65

24. Hakeem Nicks, NYG | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 64

25. Hines Ward, PIT | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 62

26. Lee Evans, BUF | Age: 28.5 | Value Score: 61

27. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ | Age: 27.3 | Value Score: 60

28. Sidney Rice, MIN | Age: 23.0 | Value Score: 58

29. Jeremy Maclin, PHI | Age: 21.3 | Value Score: 56

30. Devin Hester, CHI | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 55

TIER FIVE

31. Kenny Britt, TEN | Age: 21.0 | Value Score: 46

32. Santana Moss, WAS | Age: 30.3 | Value Score: 45

33. Antonio Bryant, TB | Age: 28.5 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 45

34. Roy Williams, DAL | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 44

35. Donnie Avery, STL | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 43

36. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA | Age: 31.9 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 42

37. Donald Driver, GB | Age: 34.6 | Value Score: 41

38. Derrick Mason, BAL | Age: 35.6 | Value Score: 41

39. #Anthony Gonzalez, IND | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 40

40. Bernard Berrian, MIN | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 40

41. Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 39

42. Johnny Knox, CHI | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 39

TIER SIX

43. Ted Ginn Jr., MIA | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 30

44. Steve Breaston, ARI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 30

45. Miles Austin, DAL | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 29

46. Mario Manningham, NYG | Age: 23.3 | Value Score: 29

47. Lance Moore, NO | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 29

48. Mike Wallace, PIT | Age: 23.1 | Value Score: 28

49. Andre Caldwell, CIN | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 28

50. James Jones, GB | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 27

51. Nate Burleson, SEA | Age: 28.0 | Value Score: 26

52. #Jordy Nelson, GB | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 25

53. Austin Collie, IND | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 24

54. Pierre Garcon, IND | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 23

55. Jacoby Jones, HOU | Age: 25.2 | Value Score: 23

56. Terrell Owens, BUF | Age: 35.8 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 22

57. Chris Henry, CIN | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 22

58. Chaz Schilens, OAK | Age: 23.8 | Value Score: 22

59. Josh Morgan, SF | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 22

60. Kevin Walter, HOU | Age: 28.1 | Value Score: 21

TIER SEVEN

61. Brandon Tate, NE | Age: 21.9 | Value Score: 12

62. Robert Meachem, NO | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 12

63. Mark Clayton, BAL | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 12

64. Earl Bennett, CHI | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 11

65. Nate Washington, TEN | Age: 26.0 | Contract: Thru 2013 | Value Score: 11

66. Devin Thomas, WAS | Age: 22.8 | Value Score: 10

67. Torry Holt, JAX | Age: 33.3 | Contract: Thru 2011 | Value Score: 10

68. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK | Age: 22.6 | Value Score: 9

69. Mike Thomas, JAX | Age: 22.3 | Value Score: 9

70. Laurent Robinson, STL | Age: 24.4 | Value Score: 8

71. Deon Butler, SEA | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 7

72. Devery Henderson, NO | Age: 27.5 | Contract: Thru 2012 | Value Score: 6

73. Limas Sweed, PIT | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 6

74. Justin Gage, TEN | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 6

Read more!

Tight End Rankings | Week 7: October 21, 2009

TIGHT ENDS

TIER ONE

1. Jason Witten, DAL | Age: 27.4 | Value Score: 98

2. Antonio Gates, SD | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 98

3. Dallas Clark, IND | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 97

TIER TWO

4. Owen Daniels, HOU | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 88

5. Chris Cooley, WAS | Age: 27.2 | Value Score: 87

6. Greg Olsen, CHI | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 86

TIER THREE

7. Tony Gonzalez, ATL | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 78

8. Brent Celek, PHI | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 77

9. Kellen Winslow II, TB | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 76

10. Zach Miller, OAK | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 74

11. Dustin Keller, NYJ | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 73

12. John Carlson, SEA | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 73

13. Heath Miller, PIT | Age: 26.9 | Value Score: 72

TIER FOUR

14. Jermichael Finley, GB | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 65

15. Vernon Davis, SF | Age: 25.5 | Value Score: 64

16. Jeremy Shockey, NO | Age: 29.1 | Value Score: 62

17. Tony Scheffler, DEN | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 60

18. Todd Heap, BAL | Age: 29.5 | Value Score: 55

19. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 55

TIER FIVE

20. Jared Cook, TEN | Age: 22.4 | Value Score: 45

21. Brandon Pettigrew, DET | Age: 24.6 | Value Score: 44

22. Martellus Bennett, DAL | Age: 22.5 | Value Score: 40

TIER SIX

23. Kevin Boss, NYG | Age: 25.7 | Value Score: 25

24. Marcedes Lewis, JAX | Age: 25.3 | Value Score: 24

25. Anthony Fasano, MIA | Age: 26.5 | Value Score: 21

26. Shawn Nelson, BUF | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 18

27. Bo Scaife, TEN | Age: 28.7 | Contract: Thru 2009 | Value Score: 15

28. Ben Watson, NE | Age: 28.7 | Value Score: 13

TIER SEVEN

29. Randy McMichael, STL | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 9

30. James Casey, HOU | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 8

31. Chase Coffman, CIN | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 8

32. Travis Beckum, NYG | Age: 22.7 | Value Score: 8

33. Dante Rosario, CHI | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 7

34. [#]Cornelius Ingram, PHI | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 5

35. Daniel Graham, DEN | Age: 30.8 | Value Score: 4

36. Fred Davis, WAS | Age: 23.7 | Value Score: 3

37. Donald Lee, GB | Age: 29.0 | Value Score: 3

Read more!

Dynasty Rising/Falling -- Week 7

Rising

QUARTERBACKS
Ben Roethlisberger
Brett Favre
Joe Flacco
Matt Schaub
Kyle Orton
Vince Young
Kurt Warner

RUNNING BACKS
Ray Rice
Tashard Choice
Rashard Mendenhall
Beanie Wells
Thomas Jones
Laurence Maroney
Justin Forsett
Brian Westbrook
Justin Fargas
BenJarvus Green-Ellis

WIDE RECEIVERS
Sidney Rice
Michael Crabtree
Hines Ward
Jacoby Jones
Mike Sims-Walker
Brandon Tate
Hakeem Nicks
Lance Moore
Wes Welker
Steve Breaston
Brandon Gibson
Johnny Knox/Devin Hester

TIGHT ENDS
Owen Daniels
Zach Miller
Tony Scheffler
Greg Olsen
Jermichael Finley

Falling

QUARTERBACKS
Mark Sanchez
Matthew Stafford
Jake Delhomme
Jason Campbell
Matt Hasselbeck
Derek Anderson
Kerry Collins

RUNNING BACKS
Brandon Jacobs
Matt Forte
Reggie Bush
Steve Slaton
Michael Turner?
Derrick Ward
Kevin Smith
Felix Jones
Michael Bush
Willie Parker
Tim Hightower
Sammy Morris
Julius Jones
Pierre Thomas
LeSean McCoy?
Jerious Norwood
Darren Sproles?

WIDE RECEIVERS
Steve Smith (CAR)
Kevin Walter
Anquan Boldin
Santana Moss
Keenan Burton
Mario Manningham
Julian Edelman
Justin Gage

TIGHT ENDS
Dustin Keller
Kevin Boss
Marcedes Lewis
John Carlson?

Read more!

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Mendenhall Officially Bypasses Parker

Courtesy of Scout.com's Jim Wexell, here's the full quote from Mike Tomlin's Tuesday press conference:

Q: Is Rashard your No. 1 back now?
A: At this point it’s ongoing, but I will acknowledge that Rashard has earned the right to take the majority of snaps as we proceed. I think that’s how we approach a lot of what we do. Who’s going to give us the best chance to win on a week-to-week basis? Rashard has had the hot hand the last several weeks. He’s been given the opportunity due to the injury to Willie Parker, and he’s really taken advantage of it. It’s great to have Willie back. We have several capable runners that we’re comfortable giving the ball to. Rashard has the hot hand right now, so in the short term we’ll proceed in the manner that we have in the last several weeks. If and when that changes, we’ll let you know.
Q: How will Parker rotate in?
A: That’s something that will be determined later in the week. It’ll be done with the emphasis on giving us the best chance of winning.

Read more!

Monday, October 19, 2009

Early Waiver Wire Look | Week 7

BYE WEEK: BAL, DEN, TEN, JAX, DET, SEA

QUARTERBACKS
Vince Young
Chad Henne - 28%
Josh Johnson
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Marc Bulger?
Todd Collins?

RUNNING BACKS
Laurence Maroney - 24%
Beanie Wells - 60%
Correll Buckhalter - 63%
Mike Bell - 52%
Justin Fargas - 12%
Justin Forsett - 7%
Jerome Harrison - 56%
Chester Taylor - 74%
Chris Brown
Kevin Faulk / BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Javon Ringer

WIDE RECEIVERS
Hakeem Nicks - 43%
Lance Moore - 34%
Ted Ginn - 56%
Jerheme Urban
Mark Clayton - 31%
Earl Bennett - 36%
James Jones
Mohamed Massaquoi - 42%
Kenny Britt - 39%
Michael Crabtree - 62%
Jacoby Jones
Keenan Burton
Mike Wallace
Andre Caldwell

TIGHT ENDS
Zach Miller - 43%
Kevin Boss - 40%, vs. ARI[7], @PHI[2], vs. SD[8]
Randy McMichael - Trade?
Sean Ryan vs. SD
Jared Cook

DEFENSES
Colts @ Rams
Chargers @ Chiefs, vs. Raiders
Patriots @ Bucs
Panthers vs. Bills

DROP

QB - Jason Campbell, Kerry Collins, Trent Edwards, Mark Sanchez

RB - Willis McGahee?, Michael Bush

WR - Devery Henderson

TE - Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Pettigrew, Bo Scaife

Read more!

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Quarterback Rankings | Week 6: October 14, 2009

Read more!

Tybee Island Softball League Standings

FALL LEAGUE 2007:
1. Huc-a-Poos, 9-0
2. AJs/Tybee Time, 7-2
3. JailBirds, 5-4
4. Coast Guard, 5-4
5. Crab Shack, 2-7
6. Breakfast Club, 0-9

SPRING/SUMMER LEAGUE 2008:
1. Huc-a-Poos, 14-1
2. Tybee Time / A.J.'s, 9-4
3. Sting Rays, 9-5
4. JailBirds, 8-7
5. Crab Shack, 7-8
6. Coast Guard, 6-8
7. *Cafe Loco, 3-6
8. Breakfast Club, 0-14

FALL LEAGUE 2008:
1. Huc-a-Poos, 8-2
2. Tybee Time/A.J.'s, 7-3
3. Jailbirds, 5-4
4. Coast Guard, 4-5
5. Sting Rays, 3-6
6. Crab Shack, 1-8

SPRING/SUMMER LEAGUE 2009:
1. Coast Guard, 8-2
2. Huc-a-Poos, 6-4
3. Cafe Loco, 5-5
4. Sting Ray's, 4-6
5. Jail Birds, 3-7
6. Fannies, 0-10

FALL LEAGUE 2009:
1. Sting Ray's, 7-1
2. Huc-a-Poos, 5-3
3. JailBirds, 4-4
4. Cafe Loco, 4-4
5. Coast Guard, 2-6
6. Fannies, 1-7

Congratulations, Huc-a-Poos! Back-to-back-to-back champions 2007-2008, tourney champs 2009.

Chat Box Q & A

I'm going to try to reserve this space for questions and answers from the chat box. There are a lot of times when I'm not online that people leave me chat questions, and I have no way of getting back to them because they're gone by the time I log in.

8/14/08
Q: How do you estimate the carries will be broken up in titans backfield? Lendale- 230/ C.Johnson- 120/ Henry- 45

A: I'll be honest with you -- I dislike projections. I think they lead to an overly conservative approach to the draft. Gregg Rosenthal and I have been going back and forth on this exact issue all week: Chris Johnson, LenDale White, and their projections. We already have 2 bets on the subject and may soon have a third.

Here's why I don't like projecting the Titans backfield: because nobody knows yet just how good Chris Johnson is. I think there is very little chance that Johnson does NOT become one of the stories of the early NFL season. He's going to have well publicized moments where he "arrives" similar to Adrian Peterson last season. He also shares the similarity with Peterson that the people doing projections were overly conservative because projections always reward veterans and past workloads and, by nature, cannot measure the impact of a rookie difference maker. Like Peterson with the Vikes, it's going to be hard to keep Chris Johnson off the field . . . and Chester Taylor is a better player than LenDale White.

Gregg brought up the Fred Taylor / MJD usage comparison in today's rotoworld blurb. That could be a good benchmark, with one exception: LenDale White is not nearly as good as Fred Taylor was last season . . . nor does he have the hard-earned respect of Taylor's 10 seasons in the league. The result is that LenDale could be easier to nudge to the side. Now I'm not saying LenDale will be left out of the game plan, but I am saying that Johnson will have much more of an impact on the offense than LenDale will.

If I had to peg an exact number for projections, I'd use the Jags as a baseline. Probably LenDale at 210 carries, Chris Johnson 180 carries, and Chris Henry negligible. Now that doesn't include receptions, of which I expect Chris Johnson to garner plenty, perhaps 60 or so.

FYI, I just checked out Gregg Rosenthal's "AFC Projected Carries" article from this afternoon. I'm starting to make some headway on Rotoworld's foot-dragging re: the Johnson/LenDale White issue:

Coach: Jeff Fisher| Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2008 Carries: 415

In a constantly evolving NFL, it's nice to know we can count on two things from Jeff Fisher, decade after decade: Awesome facial hair and a smashmouth offense. Those trends should continue, especially with another high pick in the backfield and maulers on the line.

LenDale White: 245
Chris Johnson: 145
Chris Henry: 25

With Chris Wesseling leading the way, we have admittedly caught Chris Johnson fever. White was projected for close to 300 carries, but the workload has evened out. Once you factor in receptions, we see White and Johnson having close to the same total yardage. White still remains the heavy favorite, however, to lead the team in carries and touchdowns. We doubt Johnson will be asked to carry the ball 20 times as a rookie. With a nasty offensive line hitting their prime, both backs could excel ala Jacksonville. Both look undervalued.

Gregg is still too conservative, but at least he's listening. He just hasn't realized yet that Chris Johnson will take the league by storm. . . .

8/14/08
Q: when you do value rankings, does that translate across positions?

A: No, they don't translate across position. I just don't think it's possible with the huge variation in league rules, scoring systems, roster sizes, etc. But mostly, it's the dramatic difference in scoring systems that makes it sketchy.

In the FAQ at the top of the blog, you can find my answer to the same question from last season. Here it is:

These numbers are not intended as a trade guide across positions. If they do happen to serve that purpose for some owners who find a beneficial way to tinker with the numbers, that's a bonus. I probably wasn't all that clear in my intentions, but I think this quote sums up the problems with an overall ranking vs. a positional ranking:

"Until we all start playing by the same rules and scoring systems, I think an overall ranking with a built-in trade value scale for dynasty leagues would be next to impossible. I imagine I could take a stab at it if I had to, but there's really no incentive to put even more time and effort into something that probably wouldn't be all that useful."

9/5/08
Q: Chris, why do you think Andre Johnson is widely considered better for fantasy than Anquan Boldin, both in Dynasty and re-draft leagues? They are both through 5 years in the league, Boldin is 9 months older. Boldin has played in 2 fewer games (they have both had some injury issues) and scored 100 more fantasy points than Johnson over that time (non-PPR). Yet everyone goes nuts about Andre Johnson and always points to Boldin's injuries.

A: Good question, but let me start by saying that I think you're concentrating too much on numbers and not enough on situation.

They're both dominant physical talents, but for me the answer is that Andre Johnson is a among the three or four most dominant talents at the position and has clearly been held back by David Carr and the Texans' offense throughout his early career. You saw last year what a healthy Andre Johnson could do with a legit QB. He couldn't be stopped. My goal in both Dynasty and re-draft is to acquire unstoppable monsters who give me an advantage over every other team in the league. Johnson, hindered by injury in the second half of the season, finished with the 3rd highest PPG behind only Randy Moss and T.O.

And let's face it: Andre Johnson is the #1 option in the Texans offense. Boldin isn't even the Cardinals best receiver. You can give me Andre Johnson over Anquan Boldin, and I don't think it's even close.

10/21/08
Q: Why on earth is Ronnie Brown ranked ahead of Clinton Portis? Portis while one year older, is less injury prone, with a history of consistent production. I'll hang up and listen.

A: I think this is the week that Portis gets a considerable bump, but here's the reasoning:

Portis' homerun ability is gone, his YPC has dwindled (until this season), he isn't doing much in the receiving game, and his heavy career workload -- combined with his pace of 370+ carries this season-- doesn't bode well for future value.

Ronnie Brown was the No. 1 fantasy back in the NFL last season before suffering the injury. As we've also seen with Phil Rivers and Carlos Rodgers this season, ACL surgeries just aren't a big deal anymore. Ronnie Brown is very close physically to where he was pre-injury.

Furthermore, as of Oct. 9, Ronnie Brown was leading all NFL RBs in touchdown per game since the beginning of the 2007 season. In that same time span, he was also 2nd to Brian Westbrook in yards from scrimmage and third in receiving yards per game.

What I think now is that contenders have to value Portis more for the 2008 season, but Brown has a significant advantage in post-2008 value considering Portis' troublesome workload.

10/28/08
Q: Ok I know you clearly hate Tubwhale but really come on you have him behind Jamall Charles, Derrick Ward, Thomas Jones, Ahman Bradshaw, etc?!?! He has 10 td's in 7 games and is 23 years old. Yes he doesn't look like he'll ever be a feature back but has become the best goaline back in football. These other backs are backups and 3rd stringers with the exception of Jones who just isn't very good and wayy too old. Time to give Bakesale some love...

A: We've talked about LandWhale quite a bit in the past week over on the FBG message boards, so I'm going to do some copying and pasting. But first, let me state what I thought was obvious but may not be: if you play in a TD-heavy league, make the adjustment up; if you play in a flex league instead of 2-RB league, White's value would also be higher.

OK, on to the list of reasons for BakeSale's low Dynasty ranking:

- I don't think it's clear at all that LenDale will have the same role next year . . . just as I didn't think it was clear this year that he would have the same role as last year.

- I definitely see LenDale's role being decreased in the future. As it is now, he's getting extremely lucky and piggybacking off of Chris Johnson's talent. His carries are too inconsistent, and as has been pointed out, he's useless against defenses that aren't awful. He's not a guy who will get the ball 15 times per game reliably. He may get the ball 12-15 times per game this season against crappy defenses, but the better the opponent the less you'll see of FatDale.

- We've been over this time and time again, but LenDale White is probably the one RB in the league most dependent on his team's defense staying dominant. If the defense suffers a key injury or if Haynesworth leaves in free agency, LenDale won't get off the pine. He has two roles basically: most important is to stick his head in there and pound the ball when his team has a lead, so they can control the game. The other role is goal-line, and as we've seen, that role is no sure thing. Johnson will take some of the goal-line work, and he's going to keep taking more and more of the touches.

- Yardage is a better predictor of future value than are TDs. We all know this by now, right? Except for elite superstars, touchdowns are fickle from year-to-year. Now throw in the fact that LenDale's TDs have little to do with any inherent talent on LenDale's part and are largely a product of the rest of the offense (especially Johnson) getting him in position to score.

- I don't see any reason to believe that LenDale has any stable value in Dynasty leagues. He's basically a T.J. Duckett type of back wishing he could be Mike Alstott.

- I'll even go this far: Owners who win in Dynasty leagues would never be interested in LenDale White. Winning owners can see the writing on the wall and know that LenDale will not be a stable investment. You may be able to throw him in a game here and there this year and stay afloat, but you will lose more often than not with LenDale White in your starting lineup on a weekly basis.

- I think we need to gauge his value going forward as opposed to concentrating on the TDs he vultured in the first seven weeks. I don't believe he's going to be a big help as a RB3 the rest of the way because I don't believe he's going to keep getting in the end zone with that much frequency. And I'm not interested in gambling on a guy whose only value is in converting a goal-line carry if he gets one that week.

- Here's how I would sum up LenDale White's Dynasty value:

A lot of us can agree that a back like Joseph Addai is a more of a top tier guy who derives a large portion of his value from situation. He's a talented back, sure, but the fact that he's a talented back in an offense like the Colts' lends him considerably more value than his talent alone would on many other teams.

We might say, hypothetically, that Addai's Dynasty value is 60% situation and 40% talent . . . which would be on the high end of the situation scale for a RB. Now where would you put LenDale White's Dynasy value on the same scale?

Situation - 99%, Talent - 1%
Situation - 95%, Talent - 5%?
Situation - 75%, Talent - 25%?
Situation - 65%, Talent - 35%

I think it's probably in the 90-95% situation range.

11/15/08
Q: Ok i have agreed with you on Steven Jackson's potential as the #2 RB. However after a 2nd season of significant nagging injuries, a bad line, ? at QB, and overall bad team- are you starting to sour on him a bit? Wondering if i should shop him while still has value...

A: Timely question. I'm not souring at all, but then again I've always been a firm believer in his elite talent. The time is ripe for buying not for selling. Who would you rather have as the No. 2 that has no question marks whatsoever? There's nobody.

1/4/09
Q: chris, i agree with most of your rankings within reason...i really dont understand how steven jacksons future value hasnt changed though... the guy looks to be on a bad team for the forseeable future, has shown that he has injury problems and is probably about to lose orlando pace and torry holt this year...i think guys like forte, chris johnson, turner and deangelo should all be well ahead of him...i consider SJAX a good RB2 at this point

A: Trying to ascertain which running backs suffer fluke injuries and which running backs are wearing down physically to the point where they're injury prone is certainly an inexact science. I personally believe S-Jax's recent injuries -- like those of Adrian Peterson in college -- are of the fluke variety and do not make him injury prone going forward. Someone like Clinton Portis, on the other hand, seems like a guy who is wearing down due to a heavy workload. So we're obviously looking at S-Jax's injury history from different angles. It doesn't bother me when I look at his future value, but I can see how it might be disconcerting to someone who doesn't think as highly of him.

As we see every year, running back is a position where a stud can produce outstanding fantasy numbers in a poor offense. Witness the first half of Walter Payton's career. Look at what Ronnie Brown was doing with Miami before suffering his torn ACL in 2007. Better yet, consider that S-Jax finished third among all running backs in FFToday's points per game stats this season. That's right -- in a down season, S-Jax finished third! In a season where there wasn't much that went right for S-Jax or the Rams offense, we might call his third place finish his floor. Perhaps his floor is actually closer to Top-10 in PPG if a plague hits the entire offense, but that's a fantastic sign for S-Jax owners.

To quote Lott's Fingertip on the FBG message boards, "injuries at the RB position are very common, so you have to get the guy that scores the most when he does play." There are no running backs in the NFL that are safe from injury, but S-Jax's high ceiling and high floor when he does play make him a top tier back.

Most importantly, Steven Jackson is an elite talent. His situation at the end of the 2008 is similar to MJD and Calvin Johnson toward the end of 2007 or Andre Johnson back when he had David Carr as a QB. True studs have to be ranked highly even when their situations are far form ideal because true studs are too tough to find.

1/22/09
Q: How do you feel about Matt Hasselbeck as a slamdunk buy-low? Write-off 2008 as it was a disaster but the year before he had 28tds vs 12ints. Entire Offense should be healthier this year and the Hawks are likely to take either an OT or Michael Crabtree at #4 overall. Imagine adding a Calvin Johnson-type WR to the seahawks offense of '07....potential 30 td passes?

A: I don't see Hasselbeck as a slam dunk at all. He's 34-years-old with a back problem, his receivers are subpar, he just lost the only head coach/playcaller he's ever had, his HOF left tackle is nearing the end of the line, and his new offensive coordinator is known for a run-heavy system. Crabtree may be a great prospect, but he's no Calvin Johnson ... and he's certainly no lock to land in Seattle. I'd be cooling my jets on Hasselbeck. A slight bounceback in '09? Sure. Potential for 30 TDs in '09? Not bloody likely.

1/30/09
Q: Seems to be lots of talk about Jamarcus Russell being a bust already. However remember that '07 was basically a lost yr due to his holdout so last year was really his rookie yr and he had a 13 td's vs 8 int's with an 88.6 passer rating over final 6 games. Now he was able to do this with the worst group of WR's in the league (by far) and a bad offensive line. At #7 overall they are likely to add a WR or OT and hopefully can add more in FA. Isn't it a little early to be writing this guy off as his contract at least will have him with the raiders for the next 3 years minimum?

A: I agree with your premise that it's too early to write off JaMarcus Russell, but I'm not a huge fan of taking the final 6 games of the season as "proof" that a young quarterback is on the rise. I've seen too many guys trying to extrapolate a strong finish and turning that into a QB with a bright future . . . only to end up with a J.P. Losman or Kyle Boller as their starting QBs. I do like Russell's late-season "success," but I'm leery of putting too much stock in it.

Re: writing him off as a bust, I saw a couple of NFL Network guys (I know Baldinger was one) confidently labeling him a bust at mid-season. I personally believe his footwork was as poor as I've seen from a young QB and his decision making was almost as bad. I didn't get a chance to watch him toward the end of the season, but I can only guess he improved on that.

So to answer your question: yes, I believe it's too early to write him off. But I'm not as high on his future with the Raiders as you appear to be.

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